For decades, Democrats have had a clear road to the White House: win California, New York, and Illinois, add some important states in the upper Midwest, and get close to 270 electoral votes.

Research from last week says that formula might not work anymore by 2032.

“Population shifts, reapportionment after the 2030 Census, and aggressive redistricting are reshaping the political map in ways that could leave Democrats with far fewer paths to victory,”

The site added that Americans are moving from states with high taxes and strict rules, like California, New York, and Illinois, to Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas. This is changing the balance of political power.

Analysts think that after the 2030 Census, Democratic strongholds would lose seats in Congress. California, New York, and Illinois are all expected to get smaller. Texas could get at least two more seats, and Florida is expected to get one more.

Each congressional seat is worth one electoral vote. This means that states that lean Democratic will lose power, while states that lean Republican will gain power. There are more than a dozen ways for Democrats to win the president right now, but by 2032, their choices may be limited to just a few. The article warned that even if they keep Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the “blue wall,” the math might not be enough.