For decades, Democrats have followed a reliable path to the White House: securing California, New York, and Illinois, adding key states in the upper Midwest, and edging close to 270 electoral votes.
However, by 2032, that formula may no longer be effective, according to a report.

“Population shifts, reapportionment after the 2030 Census, and aggressive redistricting are reshaping the political map in ways that could leave Democrats with far fewer paths to victory,” the report noted.

Americans are leaving high-tax, heavily regulated states like California, New York, and Illinois for Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas — a migration that is reshaping political power, the outlet added.

After the 2030 Census, analysts expect Democratic strongholds to lose seats in Congress, with California, New York, and Illinois all projected to shrink. Texas could gain at least two seats, while Florida is likely to add one.
Each congressional seat equals an electoral vote, meaning Democratic strongholds will lose influence while Republican-leaning states gain clout. Today, Democrats have more than a dozen viable paths to the presidency, but by 2032 their options could narrow to only a few. Even if they hold the “blue wall” of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the math may not be enough, the report said.