A new poll conducted for The Wall Street Journal found that Vice President Kamala Harris has significantly cut into former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden, but the GOP nominee still has some significant advantages heading into the peak of this year’s election cycle.
According to the results, Trump leads Harris 49-47 percent, which is within the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error. Earlier this month, Trump held a 6-point lead when Biden backed out and endorsed his VP
On a ballot test that included Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent and third-party candidates, Harris receives 45% and Trump gets 44%. Kennedy is backed by just 4% and 5% remain undecided. Biden trailed in the multicandidate contest by six points in the last poll.
Harris has made strides in reassembling the coalition that put Biden in the White House in 2020, one that had been fraying under the stress of unease about his physical and mental sharpness. Black, Latino and young voters all showed greater support for her than they did for Biden in a Journal survey taken in the days after his disastrous debate performance on June 27.
A shift in the demographic composition of Democratic support could change the states where Harris could be competitive against Trump, a Republican seeking a third term. Increased support among nonwhite voters could benefit her in the more racially and ethnically diverse battleground states—Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina—where Biden was facing challenges.
“Only 37% of Biden voters were enthusiastic about him in early July and now 81% of Harris voters are enthusiastic about her,” Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee, said. “This is an astounding change.”
However, there are some big advantages for Trump. For one, though enthusiasm for Harris among Democrats is much higher than it was for Biden, Republicans are still more enthusiastic about voting for the former president. Also, Lee cautioned that Democrats should not be overly confident in Harris.
“While Democrats and many in the media will tout these tightened ballot numbers as a change in the race, let’s not forget that at this time in July 2020 The Wall Street Journal national polling had Biden leading Trump by 9 points and had Biden leading Trump in August by 11 points,” he told the WSJ. “Donald Trump is in a far better position in this election when compared to a similar time in the 2020 election.”
Lee also noted the approval of Trump’s job performance as president in this survey, the highest recorded so far this election cycle in the poll. “A majority of voters—51%—approve of the job Trump did as president, while a majority of voters—50%—disapprove of the job Kamala Harris is doing as vice president.
Also, the Journal added: “A race that is essentially tied nationally means Trump would still likely have the Electoral College advantage, given the way the country’s population is dispersed. In 2016, Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by nearly 3 million votes, but won more than 300 out of 538 Electoral College votes.”
Harris also faces significant challenges because her vice presidency is closely tied to a Biden administration record that includes a chaotic southern border, rising prices, and protracted wars in the Middle East and Ukraine.
According to the poll, Trump is seen as more capable than Harris at handling immigration, the economy, foreign relations, and crime. However, Harris is favored 51% to 33% over Trump in dealing with abortion. The two are rated closely on the question of who best “cares about people like you.”
